Projected avoided pollutant emissions resulting from the increasing market share of electric, hydrogen, and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the new passenger car segment: a comparative case study of Poland and Spain by 2035

Abstract

Pollutant emissions are one of the main reasons why the European Union supports the use of electric and hydrogen vehicles. However, the environmental benefits depend on the energy mix used to produce electricity. This study examines the reduction of pollutant emissions resulting from the substitution of internal combustion vehicles with electric and/or hydrogen vehicles in Poland and Spain. The analysis applies the COPERT methodology to estimate emissions and the external cost monetisation approach to assess environmental impacts. The findings indicate that in Poland, by 2027, replacing conventional vehicles with hybrids yields greater environmental benefits than substitution with electric or hydrogen vehicles. However, across the entire analysed period, electric and hydrogen vehicles are more environmentally beneficial. If the share of renewable energy in Poland’s mix does not grow as expected, replacing traditional vehicles with hybrids may be more sustainable. In Spain, increasing alternative vehicles remains the most favourable scenario.