Cultivating Digital Connection: An Empirical Investigation of Social Presence, Sense of Belonging, and Academic Persistence Intentions in Online Higher Education

Abstract

Background: Distance education across fully online, hybrid, and asynchronous formats has experienced rapid growth in higher education worldwide, fundamentally transforming how students learn. However, despite technological advancements such as Learning Management Systems (LMS) and video-conferencing tools, student isolation, socio-emotional disengagement, and degree attrition persist. Objective: This study examines how learner-perceived Social Presence (comprising Affective Expression, Open Communication, and Group Cohesion within the Community of Inquiry framework) relates to students' Sense of Belonging and Academic Persistence Intentions in online university courses. Methods: An explanatory sequential mixed-methods design was employed across three major public university systems in North America (N = 482 survey respondents; N = 36 focus group participants across six sessions). Quantitative data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), followed by Codebook Thematic Analysis of qualitative focus group narratives. Results: PLS-SEM structural path analysis indicated that learner-perceived Social Presence significantly predicted Sense of Belonging (β = 0.542, p < 0.001, f² = 0.416, R² = 0.294). Sense of Belonging in turn directly predicted Academic Persistence Intention (β = 0.612, p < 0.001, f² = 0.598). Furthermore, a direct path from Social Presence to Academic Persistence Intention was significant (β = 0.185, p = 0.002), with Sense of Belonging serving as a significant mediating bridge (indirect effect β = 0.332, p < 0.001, VAF = 64.2%, confirming complementary partial mediation). In the full inner structural model incorporating both the direct and indirect paths, the total explained variance for Academic Persistence Intentions reached R² = 0.502 (50.2%). Qualitative thematic findings identified four primary pedagogical drivers: Instructor Video & Audio Immediacy, Asynchronous Peer Reflection, Psychological Safety, and Micro-Community Learning Pods. Conclusion: Social presence provides the essential socio-emotional underpinning for virtual belonging. Human-centered, personalized communication, instructor visibility, and structured peer reflection are strongly associated with higher academic persistence intentions among online learners.