India’s historical contribution to present-day warming is recent and multi-gas

Abstract

Quantifying national contributions to present-day warming helps clarify how historical emissions from different countries have shaped global temperature change. This is particularly relevant for India, where rising energy demand and emissions make the country’s future mitigation pathway increasingly important for global efforts to limit warming. Understanding India’s contribution to warming to date, and how it varies across greenhouse gases and emitting sectors, can therefore provide useful context for its future mitigation priorities. Here, we quantify India’s contribution to the 2024 global mean surface temperature change from historical territorial emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O over 1750–2024 using PRIMAP-hist emissions and the FaIR climate model. India contributes approximately 0.047 °C–0.05 °C to 2024 warming, less than the United States, China, the EU27 and Russia among the major emitters considered, but more than several other industrial and emerging economies. Much of India’s contribution has accumulated in recent decades, with the strongest increase occurring after 1990. This rise is driven primarily by CO2 emissions from the energy sector, while agriculture remains the main source of non-CO2 warming through CH4 and N2O. Overall, CH4 and N2O account for roughly one-third to two-fifths of India’s total contribution, giving India a more multi-gas profile than many early industrialised emitters. Although India’s cumulative contribution to present-day warming remains comparatively modest, its rapid recent growth highlights the increasing importance of energy system decarbonisation. Reducing fossil fuel dependence in the energy sector will therefore be central to limiting further growth in India’s warming contribution and supporting progress towards its long-term net-zero target for 2070.