Satellite observations reveal underestimation of CO2 emissions in Africa and the Middle East

Abstract

Africa and the Middle East contribute significantly to global fossil fuel production, yet the associated carbon emissions from these extraction and processing activities remain insufficiently reported. The current reporting is not only delayed but also heavily reliant on energy consumption statistics that are difficult to verify. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to indirectly infer and map anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using the coemitted nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions derived from TROPOMI satellite observations. We find that current global inventories underestimate total CO2 emissions by about 30% for Africa and the Middle East. About 35% of this underestimation is related to newly identified CO2 emission sources, which are mainly attributable to oil and gas infrastructure. The analysis reveals that these underestimated emissions could lead to a delay of ∼5 years in achieving the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution targets in Africa and the Middle East. This study provides an effective tool for constructing an independent carbon emission accounting framework based on satellite observations and offers a scientific database for guiding climate action.