Fire, Land Use and Climate Interactions: Understanding the Drivers of Fire Regimes in Conservation Landscapes of West Africa

Abstract

Fire shapes vegetation structure, biodiversity, and carbon dynamics across West African protected areas (PAs). We aimed to assess fine-scale interactions of climatic, ecological, and landscape controls on burning in PAs, as these are poorly understood. We analysed fire dynamics across 15 PAs in four ecological zones in West Africa. We used 20 years (2004-2024) of MODIS burned area data, harmonized GLAD and ESRI land cover, and ERA5 climate reanalysis within a buffer-based spatial framework (0-20 km) to capture gradients from PA interiors to surrounding human-modified landscapes. We found that PAs in Northern Savanna zone recorded the highest burn frequencies, with peaks between November and January, reaching 57-61% of park area, while PAs in Southern Forest zone showed near-zero burning regardless of seasonal rainfall. Dry-season precipitation was negatively associated with burned area across fire-prone parks, while wet-season rainfall showed no consistent association. Burn frequency was highest within PA interiors and declined progressively outward across buffer zones up to 20 km. Rangelands and croplands burned more frequently than tree-dominated cover classes, showing high fire activity in Northern Savanna and near-zero activity in Southern Forest ecological zones. Fires outside PA boundaries ignited earlier and burned more extensively than fires inside, indicating stronger anthropogenic ignition pressure in surrounding landscapes. The results show that fire regimes in West African PAs are governed largely by ecological context and seasonal climate rather than vegetation type alone. Therefore, fire management strategies in conservation landscapes must be designed to be adaptable to ecological zones, seasonal climate forecasts, and activities at adjacent park boundaries.