CARBON EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF TERRITORIAL SPACE OPTIMIZATION UNDER THE “DUAL CARBON” GOALS: THE CASE OF XINYANG, CHINA

Abstract

Optimizing the territorial spatial layout under the China’s “dual-carbon” (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) strategy has become an imperative measure to mitigate climate change and reduce carbon emission. However, previous studies paid less attention to the carbon reduction potential of land use optimization in medium and small-sized cities. The study selects Xinyang City as the case area, analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the territorial space and the carbon budget, and evaluates the carbon reduction potential of land use optimization schemes. The results showed that: (1) Territorial space is characterized by a distinct north-south divergence, with cultivated land dominating the north and forest land prevailing in the south. (2) Carbon emissions peaked at 3163.53 × 104 t in 2014 and dropped to 2737.80 × 104 t in 2020. Carbon emissions are contributed by construction land in the northern plain, whereas the core carbon sinks are the forested areas in the south. (3) The ecological protection scenario can achieve carbon neutrality, while the construction and development scenario exacerbates the carbon imbalance. (4) In the future, strengthening the control of land development, determining leading industries based on local conditions, establishing a differentiated assessment mechanism, and building the monitoring platform of carbon budget should be taken.