Dinamika Sales Growth dan Implikasinya terhadap Profitabilitas: Evidensi Perusahaan Ritel di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2021-2024

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to examine the effect of sales growth on the profitability of retail companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2021–2024 period, a time frame marked by shifting consumer behavior following the acceleration of digital transformation. Specifically, it seeks to determine whether an increase in sales revenue is consistently followed by an improvement in corporate profitability, or whether the relationship is more conditional in nature. Method: This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary panel data drawn from the annual financial reports of 25 retail companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2021–2024, purposively sampled based on data completeness. Sales growth is measured as the year-on-year percentage change in sales, while profitability is proxied by Return on Assets (ROA). The data are analyzed through panel data regression using EViews 14, preceded by the Chow and Hausman tests to select the most appropriate estimation model. Finding: The regression results show that sales growth has a negative coefficient but no statistically significant effect on profitability (ROA), with a probability value well above the 0.05 significance level. This indicates that higher sales are not always followed by higher corporate profits, and that the model’s explanatory power (R²) is very low, suggesting that profitability in the retail sector is driven mainly by factors other than sales growth alone. Novelty: Unlike previous studies that examined multiple industries or used older data, this study focuses on the retail sector using recent data from 2021–2024. The findings indicate that operational cost efficiency, rather than sales growth alone, is the primary driver of sustainable profitability.