THE PHENOMENON OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES ON THE EXAMPLE OF KYRGYZSTAN

Abstract

Today, the countries of Central Asia demonstrate stable economic growth, within the economic growth of Kyrgyzstan stands out particularly. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic dynamics of the Kyrgyz Republic, including its structural shifts, such as an increase in the share of commodity-producing sectors alongside a gradual decline in the share of agriculture. A separate section examines infrastructure and hydropower projects as factors of long-term development, as well as Kyrgyzstan’s geo-economic role in the context of the reconfiguration of trade ties in Eurasia.In this regard, the aim of the study is to determine whether the observed economic upswing in Kyrgyzstan, which has illustrated significant economic growth in 2025, constitutes a long-term trend or a conjunctural phenomenon of macroeconomic dynamics; as well as to identify prospects for sustainable development amidst growing geopolitical turbulence and the reconfiguration of global trade and economic relations. Based on this objective, the methodological framework of the research is founded on a systemic analysis and includes examination of statistical data, macroeconomic forecasts, and sectoral reviews. The paper sequentially analyses GDP dynamics, structural shifts in industry and construction, foreign trade performance, flows of foreign direct investment and remittances, as well as ongoing hydropower and logistics projects.The article notes that, despite positive structural changes and record growth rates, the current upswing is largely of a conjunctural nature, being driven by post-pandemic recovery, re-export effects, and temporary geopolitical factors. Key risks remain sanctions pressure, declining exports to traditional partner countries, and high dependence on external shocks. A transition to sustainable long-term growth is possible provided that strategic stability in foreign policy is strengthened, critical sectors (especially hydropower) are developed, and dependence on external shocks is reduced.