The Effects of Exports, Inflation, and Tadawul Index on Saudi Arabia’s Economic Growth

Abstract

Economic growth is a key indicator of national economic performance and remains an important concern for Saudi Arabia amid efforts to diversify its economy and reduce dependence on oil. This study aims to examine the effects of exports, inflation, and the stock exchange index on economic growth in Saudi Arabia during 2016–2023, both partially and simultaneously. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary quarterly data from 32 obtained from official economic and financial sources. The data were analyzed using path analysis and multiple regression with classical assumption tests, correlation analysis, coefficient of determination, t-tests, and F-tests. The findings show that exports have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while the stock exchange index also has a positive and significant effect. In contrast, inflation has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth. Exports also have a negative but insignificant effect on inflation. Simultaneously, exports, inflation, and the stock exchange index significantly affect economic growth, with an R² of 0.921, indicating that the model explains 92.1% of the variation in economic growth. These findings highlight the importance of export development and financial-market strengthening in supporting sustainable economic growth in Saudi Arabia.