LYME DISEASE AS A GROWING THREAT TO PUBLIC HEALTH IN UKRAINE: CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS

Abstract

Introduction. Lyme disease (Lyme borreliosis) is the most common vector-borne infection in Europe and North America and is officially classified in Ukraine among the especially dangerous infectious diseases. According to World Health Organization estimates, registered incidence substantially underestimates the true scale of the problem, and climate change together with the expanding range of ixodid ticks is projected to further increase infection rates worldwide. Aim. A comprehensive analysis of the epidemic process of Lyme disease in Ukraine, including a forecast of its dynamics through 2030, to substantiate priority directions for improving the disease-control system under current challenges. Materials and methods. Official state statistical reporting data of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine (Form No. 1 "Report on Selected Infectious and Parasitic Diseases") on Lyme disease incidence over a nine-year period (2017–2025) were used. An epidemiological analysis of time series and the territorial distribution of cases across the regions of Ukraine was performed. The 2026–2030 forecast was built using linear regression, with subsequent adjustment of the intensive rate to account for the projected actual resident population of Ukraine according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data. Results. A fluctuating pattern in incidence was established starting in 2017, reaching an all-time high in 2025 (6,748 cases; 16.46 per 100,000 population). A marked regional disparity was identified, with cases heavily concentrated in Kyiv, Lviv, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts, as well as the city of Kyiv. Mathematical forecasting for 2026–2030 indicates a further increase in the number of cases up to 11,800; accounting for the actual population size, this represents a 1.7-fold rise in the incidence rate (from 20.57 to 34.77 per 100,000 population). Conclusions. Lyme disease represents a growing public health threat in Ukraine. Effective infection control is hampered by a lack of population-based serological studies, limitations in the passive surveillance system, and the absence of standardized national guidelines. Under current challenges, priority directions for improving the infection control system include the implementation of active surveillance, widespread deployment of serological testing, tick vector control, and spatial monitoring for epidemic containment. Furthermore, targeted empirical research is required to provide a scientific rationale for effective enhancements to the Lyme disease surveillance system in Ukraine.