Diffusion Network Inference for Cross-layer Cascades

Abstract

A cascade over a network refers to the diffusion process where behavior changes occurring in one part of an interconnected population lead to a series of sequential changes throughout the entire population. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest and efforts to understand and model cascade mechanisms since they motivate many significant research topics across different disciplines. The propagation structure of cascades is governed by underlying diffusion networks that are often hidden. Inferring diffusion networks thus enables interventions in cascading process to maximize information propagation and provides insights into the Granger causality of interaction mechanisms among individuals. In this project, we propose a novel double network mixture model for inferring latent diffusion network in presence of strong cascade heterogeneity. The new model represents cascade pathways as a distributional mixture over diffusion networks that capture different cascading patterns at the population level. We develop a data-driven optimization method to infer diffusion networks using only visible temporal cascade records, avoiding the need to model complex and heterogeneous individual states. Both statistical and computational guarantees are established for the proposed method. We apply the proposed model to analyze research topic cascades in social sciences across U.S. universities and uncover the latent research topic diffusion network among top U.S. social science programs.