Climate Variability, Crop Productivity, and Production Value: Evidence from Wheat and Maize in Pakistan

Abstract

Climate variability poses increasing challenges to agricultural productivity and food security, particularly in developing economies that depend heavily on climate-sensitive crop production. This study examines the effects of key climatic factors on the productivity and production value of wheat and maize in Pakistan using annual data for the period 1981–2014. The analysis considers annual average rainfall, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature as the principal climatic variables and evaluates their relationships with crop productivity and production value. The empirical findings indicate that average minimum temperature and rainfall are positively associated with wheat and maize productivity and production value, whereas higher average maximum temperature exerts a negative effect on crop outcomes. These results highlight the heterogeneous effects of climatic conditions across temperature measures and demonstrate the vulnerability of major cereal crops to rising temperature extremes. The findings underscore the importance of climate-resilient agricultural policies, including improved water and irrigation management, drought and flood monitoring, climate-informed crop planning, and the adoption of heat- and drought-tolerant crop varieties. Strengthening climate information and early-warning systems can further support farmers and policymakers in reducing climate-related production risks and sustaining agricultural productivity.