Unraveling the Land-Water-Ecology Nexus and Water-Ecological Function Mismatch: Drivers of Aquatic Ecosystem Integrity in the Yellow River Basi

Abstract

In the water-stressed Yellow River Basin (YRB), land-use intensification (LUI) severely threatens water-related ecosystem services (WRES) critical for regional aquatic integrity. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of Habitat Quality (HQ, reflecting watershed regulation) and Biodiversity Conservation Function (BCF, indicating freshwater ecosystem health) from 2008 to 2023. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, net primary productivity (NPP)-based assessment, Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE), and in combination with eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) analysis, we found that (1) while HQ remained stable (0.68-0.70), BCF exhibited a “southeast high, northwest low” gradient, (2) NPP, temperature, and precipitation are the primary natural drivers, and (3) a significant “water-ecological function mismatch” exists in the middle S-shaped bend due to water scarcity. The findings provide a scientific basis for prioritizing ecological compensation and balancing land pressure with aquatic conservation in arid and semi-arid regions.