The Effect of Interest Rates and Inflation on Stock Prices at PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk 2016-2025

Abstract

The capital market plays a vital role in the economy, where stock prices serve as a primary indicator reflecting corporate performance. The property sector, such as PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE), is highly sensitive to macroeconomic dynamics, particularly interest rate and inflation fluctuations that directly impact capital costs, mortgage financing, and public purchasing power. This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of interest rates and inflation on the stock price of PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk for the 2016–2025 period. An associative quantitative approach was employed using a saturated sampling technique based on ten years of monthly secondary data (119 observations). Analytical methods include classic assumption tests, Cochrane-Orcutt autocorrelation correction, multiple linear regression, correlation and determination coefficients, F-test, and t-test. The results reveal that interest rates and inflation simultaneously exert a significant effect on BSDE stock prices, contributing 10.5%. Partially, both interest rates and inflation significantly influence stock prices. This study concludes that macroeconomic conditions are critical external factors that must be closely monitored by investors and corporate management.