Winnow-tax: sensitive and precise taxonomic profiling of low-coverage organisms in shotgun metagenomes
TL;DR
Results support a profiling strategy in which weak taxonomic signals are retained during candidate generation but require genomic evidence distributed as broadly as expected for their sequencing depth before species presence is accepted.
Abstract
Accurate species-level profiling of shotgun metagenomes becomes difficult when an organism is represented by only sparse sequence coverage. Per-read k-mer classifiers can retain sensitivity under these conditions, but short reads from conserved or shared genomic regions can generate false-positive calls among closely related references. More conservative marker-gene and genome-containment approaches generally provide stronger species-level specificity but may lose sensitivity as genomic sampling becomes sparse. We present winnow-tax, a two-stage taxonomic profiling pipeline that separates sensitive candidate nomination from genome-level confirmation. Candidate species are nominated using Sylph, Kraken2, and a branch-rescue procedure, then reads are competitively recruited to a sample-specific reference set. Species presence is evaluated using read support, observed genome breadth, and a Lander-Waterman-based breadth ratio that compares observed breadth with the breadth expected at the measured mean depth. In a controlled synthetic community of 82 genomes with human DNA background, winnow-tax maintained a stronger precision-sensitivity balance than Kraken2/Bracken, Sylph, and MetaPhlAn 4 as genome coverage decreased, with its advantage concentrated near the low-coverage detection boundary. In the CAMI III Toy Longitudinal Human Gut benchmark, winnow-tax had higher sensitivity than Sylph (0.803 versus 0.672), lower precision (0.923 versus 0.970), and a modestly but significantly higher F1 score (0.858 versus 0.793). In a clinical enteric stool cohort with culture/PCR reference testing, winnow-tax achieved the best composite performance for Salmonella, detecting 37 of 48 composite-positive samples with one false-positive call. Together, these results support a profiling strategy in which weak taxonomic signals are retained during candidate generation but require genomic evidence distributed as broadly as expected for their sequencing depth before species presence is accepted.