Investigating key technologies and vulnerabilities for the electricity system in the Yukon, Canada

Abstract

Planning electricity systems under conditions of deep uncertainty hinders the already challenging task of meeting growing electricity demands while aligning with sustainability objectives. In this work we use an ensemble of three analyzes (frequency of technology appearance across modeled scenarios, importance of uncertainty in affecting decisions, value of technology deployment options to adapt to uncertainty) to identify system vulnerabilities and identify prospective generators that support sustainability outcomes for a case study in the Yukon, Canada for a planning horizon of 2022–2050. Building upon a modeling framework we previously developed that couples Monte Carlo simulation with a form of myopic foresight to simulate cost-minimizing capacity expansion decisions, we assess how specific prospective generators and accompanying system uncertainties contribute to either robust or risky outcomes for key metrics including cost and socio-environmental indicators. Our findings suggest rising demand, higher peak loads, and early retirement of a hydroelectric dam are key risks to the Yukon’s electricity system. We find demand-side management programs and pumped hydro storage most frequently have potential to contribute to reducing costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Counterintuitively, the operational flexibility and small physical footprint of diesel generation enable it to be a frequent contributor to improve cost and social and ecological outcomes. Conversely, under the range of conditions modeled, the model indicates wind, solar, liquefied natural gas, and renewable thermal technologies are non-optimal in a large proportion of modeled futures. This study highlights specific vulnerabilities and generation assets that can assist electric utilities and system planners in making robust decisions for planning expansions to the Yukon’s electricity system.