Disaggregated Public Infrastructure Expenditure and Poverty Reduction in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract

This study examines the effect of disaggregated public infrastructure on poverty reduction in Nigeria, focusing on road and construction, education, health, communication, and security infrastructure. Annual time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank from 1990 to 2024 were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the short- and long-run effects of infrastructure on the poverty headcount ratio at the $1.90-per-day poverty line. The findings indicate that road and construction, education, health, and communication infrastructure have significant negative effects on poverty, with education infrastructure exhibiting the strongest poverty-reducing effect. In contrast, security infrastructure has no statistically significant effect on poverty in either the short or long run. The study concludes that infrastructure development can contribute significantly to poverty reduction in Nigeria, although the magnitude and significance of the effects vary across infrastructure components. It recommends prioritizing investment in education, road, health, and communication infrastructure while improving the effectiveness of security-related expenditure