Electoral Capital and the Transformation of Morocco’s Party Field - A Sociohistorical Analysis of the Outputs of a Forecasting Model for the 2026 Legislative Elections: A Study in Political Sociology and Electoral Behaviour

Abstract

This article develops a sociological and historical framework for interpreting a constituency-based forecasting model of Morocco’s 2026 legislative elections. Rather than treating previous seat totals as fixed partisan assets, it conceives electoral representation as the institutional outcome of interacting organizational, candidate-centered, territorial, historical and contextual resources. The model aggregates district-level assessments into regional and national outputs. Its central scenario allocates 101 seats to the Party of Authenticity and Modernity, 77 to the National Rally of Independents, 63 to the Istiqlal Party, 50 to the Justice and Development Party, 36 to the Popular Movement, 27 to the Socialist Union of Popular Forces, 15 to the Constitutional Union, 11 to the Party of Progress and Socialism, 7 to the Left Alliance, 6 to the Democratic and Social Movement and 2 to the Front of Democratic Forces. These figures are model outputs, not polling estimates. The article argues that electoral sociology in Morocco should move from merely describing results to explaining the social and political processes through which seats are produced.