Energetics of Fault-Tolerant Spin-Qubit Quantum Computation

Abstract

Semiconductor spin qubits offer a promising route to compact and scalable quantum computers, combining long coherence times in isotopically purified silicon with compatibility with semiconductor manufacturing. Beyond computational speedup, their energy efficiency is an important consideration for future large-scale systems. We evaluate the power and energy requirements of a Loss-DiVincenzo spin-qubit quantum computer by analyzing the Quantum Fourier Transform (QFT) and benchmarking it against the classical Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). We develop a detailed energy budget, identifying cryogenic cooling as the dominant baseline contribution before quantum error correction (QEC). The comparison between the QFT and the classical FFT reveals that, for any quantum workload operating under a polynomially bounded sampling regime, the crossover in energy consumption occurs at smaller problem sizes than the crossover in execution time. Thus, quantum computing can become energetically competitive before achieving a speedup in execution time. We then incorporate surface-code QEC and analyze the energy costs of QEC cycles, gate synthesis, and decoding. At scale, instrumentation and decoding become dominant contributions, while cryogenic cooling imposes a constraint on scalability. We show that optimizing the control-signal demultiplexing ratio can reduce the overall energy cost by approximately two orders of magnitude. For a system with about one million physical qubits, we estimate a power consumption of approximately 100 kW, at least one order of magnitude below that of today's highest-performance classical computing systems.