Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Influencing Mechanisms of Land-Use Carbon Emissions in Counties of Northern Henan, China

Abstract

Climate warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, severely threatens ecosystems and human societies. Accelerated by urbanization, land-use changes have significantly exacerbated climate change and disrupted carbon dynamics. Counties are key administrative units in China and are crucial for economic growth and achieving carbon neutrality goals. However, systematic research on carbon emission evolution and drivers at this scale remains scarce, hindering targeted low-carbon pathways. This study employs an improved IPCC method to quantify land-use carbon emissions (LUCE) in 37 Northern Henan counties (2000-2020). Using the standard deviational ellipse, Moran’s I, and an optimal parameter-based geographical detector, we analyzed spatiotemporal patterns and drivers. The results showed that (1) land transformation primarily involved converting cultivated land to construction land, with the latter increasing by 45.6%. The LUCE distribution exhibited stability, while global Moran’s I increased from 0.082 to 0.382, reflecting enhanced “high-high” and “low-low” spatial clustering. (2) Socioeconomic factors were the dominant drivers before 2010, while natural factors gained prominence thereafter. By 2020, natural constraints (especially NDVI) and their interactions with human activities (e.g., NTL) became key determinants, signaling intensified human‑nature coupling. (3) Given heterogeneous resources, we propose tailored pathways, including land use optimization, industrial transformation, and regional collaboration. This research establishes a fine-scale methodological framework for identifying complex driving mechanisms, offering scientific evidence for precise spatial planning and differentiated carbon mitigation policies at the county level to promote synergy between regional development and ecological sustainability.