Climate driven habitat expansion of the bamboo borer under CMIP6 climate change scenarios using MaxEnt modeling

Abstract

Dinoderus minutus (Fabricius, 1775), commonly known as the bamboo borer, is a major post-harvest pest of bamboo and bamboo-based products worldwide. Understanding its potential distribution under future climate change is essential for developing effective pest surveillance and management strategies. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the current and future climatic suitability of D. minutus using global occurrence records and bioclimatic variables from WorldClim v2.1. The model exhibited high predictive accuracy with a mean AUC value of 0.891, indicating robust performance. Among the environmental variables, annual precipitation (BIO12; 26.8%), elevation (24.1%), temperature seasonality (BIO4; 15.4%), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (BIO10; 14.9%), and temperature annual range (BIO7; 14.0%) were the most influential predictors. Current predictions indicated that only 5.36% of the global terrestrial area is climatically suitable for the species, primarily across South and Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, and northern Australia. Future projections based on the MIROC6 climate model under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios revealed a substantial expansion of suitable habitat, increasing to 9.07–10.39% of the global land area. The greatest expansion was observed during 2041–2060 under SSP370 (10.39%), whereas SSP126 maintained the most stable suitable area throughout the century (10.27–10.38%). Spatial projections suggested further expansion into southern Europe, the Mediterranean region, temperate East Asia, and the southern United States. These findings indicate that climate change is likely to facilitate the global expansion of D. minutus, highlighting the need for proactive biosecurity measures and long-term monitoring programs.