Predicting Novel Stable Materials for Experimental Synthesis

Abstract

Machine-learning-accelerated materials discovery has yielded large numbers of computationally stable compounds, yet many remain experimentally unrealized, underscoring a persistent gap between prediction and synthesis. Here, we introduce a hierarchical screening framework that combines PBE-based thermodynamic stability, efficient dynamical-stability screening enabled by universal machine-learning interatomic potentials, and SCAN-based thermodynamic refinement. Applying this protocol to the 894 stable materials previously reported in Sci. Data 9, 302 (2022), we first curate 603 unique structures, of which only 298 remain thermodynamically stable on the complete PBE phase diagrams, demonstrating the critical role of competing phases in stability assessment. Dynamical screening then identifies 166 materials stable under both harmonic-phonon and finite-temperature molecular dynamics criteria, and SCAN phase diagrams further narrow this set to 109. Finally, by combining decomposition enthalpy with chemical-space completeness, we prioritize 25 candidates as high-confidence targets for experimental synthesis. This work provides a practical protocol for translating stability predictions into experimentally actionable synthesis targets, closing a key gap in machine-learning-driven materials discovery.