Development of the export potential of Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial complex: opportunities and barriers

Abstract

In the context of globalization and intensifying international competition, developing the export potential of the agro-industrial complex (AIC) of Kazakhstan has become strategically important for sustaining economic growth and ensuring food security. This study assesses the current state and identifies key factors shaping Kazakhstan’s AIC export potential through an analysis of export dynamics and structure over 2021–2024. The research employs statistical, comparative, structural, and factor analysis methods, complemented by a regional contribution assessment methodology to quantify each region’s impact on aggregate export performance. The findings reveal critical trends, including a rising share of processed goods, a declining share of raw commodity exports, and pronounced regional differentiation in export activity. The primary growth drivers are processed products and selected regions (Almaty city, Turkestan Region and Almaty Region) while several regions continue to constrain overall export potential. The scientific novelty lies in a methodological framework for evaluating the contribution of individual regions and product categories to AIC export potential formation. The practical value resides in recommendations for export diversification, processing sector advancement, and enhanced regional export policy. The findings carry direct implications for state policy in AIC export support and regional agro-industrial development. The proposed approach enables policymakers to identify priority investment directions, pinpoint “growth nodes,” and mitigate structural constraints. The results may also provide a methodological foundation for further research into mechanisms that enhance the agricultural sector’s foreign economic activity and performance.