Ten years of Zika Brazilian outbreak: current epidemiological status, molecular landscape and future concerns

Abstract

The Zika virus (ZIKV) promoted global concern in 2015 owing to the outbreak in Brazil related to dramatic neurological complications such as microcephaly. Ten years after the outbreak, this integrative study aimed to analyse the epidemiology of ZIKV in Brazil (2016–2024), predict its future trend and correlate the molecular scenario of the infection with possible associations with other human diseases. The epidemiological analysis was conducted using public data from OpenDataSUS (2016–2024), and case predictions (2025–2027) were made using the Prophet model. Epidemiological results showed a peak in cases in 2016, followed by a trend towards stabilization at endemic levels, a behaviour that the forecast suggests will continue seasonally until 2027. Molecular analysis revealed a strong association between ZIKV infection differentially expressed proteins and genes related to neurological diseases, particularly Alzheimer's disease and microcephaly. These findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring of ZIKV and suggest that ZIKV represents an ongoing threat that should not be overlooked.