This framework bridges probabilistic modeling and statistical inference in time-varying networks, providing practical tools for understanding and predicting complex edge dynamics.
Abstract
We study dynamic random graphs in which the set of nodes is fixed, but edges evolve over time according to an underlying stochastic mechanism. Using a maximum-entropy approach, we define a probability distribution on graph trajectories that is consistent with observed constraints, capturing the inherent uncertainty in partially observed networks. We introduce a moment-based estimator for the parameters of this distribution and establish its statistical properties, such as consistency and asymptotic normality, with explicit formulas for the covariance structure. Numerical experiments demonstrate the estimator's accuracy and robustness across various dynamic network scenarios. Our framework bridges probabilistic modeling and statistical inference in time-varying networks, providing practical tools for understanding and predicting complex edge dynamics.
In this work we develop statistical methodology to estimate and perform inference on subgraph densities using time-indexed, or dynamic network sequences. These estimates explicitly adjust for observation errors for the network edges, and have good theoretical properties as the size of the network grows. By specifying a stochastically evolving hidden Markov network model, we address two important directions for further investigation identified by Chang et al. (2022): robustness to non-identical network replicates, and efficient aggregation of multiple available network snapshots. These new methods vastly expand the analysis of noisy networks to new data settings, as network replicates are commonly observed dynamically. The methodology is also extended to consider joint inference for subgraph densities at multiple time points, to facilitate formal statistical comparison of dynamic network snapshots.
The joint asymptotic distribution of any finite collection of network moments in random graphs sampled from a graphon, which includes both the nondegenerate case as well as the degenerate case, provides the higher-order fluctuation theory for subgraph counts in the graphon model.
Anirban Chatterjee, S. Dan, B. Bhattacharya· Annals of Statistics· 0 citations
Mean-field approximations for dynamical processes on networks are widely used, but existing derivations often rely either on moment closures or on idealised assumptions about network structure, leaving the nature of the underlying averaging unclear. Here we present a mathematically principled framework for deriving edge-based mean-field approximations for a broad class of Markov processes on networks using approximate lumping. We consider models in which each vertex is in one of a finite number of vertex states and transitions depend on the number of neighbours in each state. Our approach partitions the full Markov chain state space according to the number of vertices and edges in each possible state, and averages transition rates between partitions. This yields density-dependent population processes that, in the limit of large system size, reduce to a low-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations. We demonstrate the method on single graphs and graph ensembles, such as Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random networks, and show that well-known edge-based mean-field approximations arise as special cases of our approach. Our approximate lumping framework clarifies the nature of the averaging underlying mean-field approximations, providing a basis for future work on assessing their accuracy.
G. Timár, Jonathan A. Ward, Péter L. Simon· 0 citations
In this work, we explore the concept of equilibrium measures within the framework of Schr¨odinger random walks on networks. Building on previous work, we demonstrate how these equilibrium measures can be leveraged to compute key network parameters such as the Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) and Kemeny’s constant. By expressing these parameters in terms of generalized inverses of the associated M-matrix, we provide new insights and efficient computational tools for network analysis. The results are particularly applicable to both star and path networks, where we offer explicit formulations for these fundamental quantities. Our findings highlight the importance of equilibrium measures as a powerful tool in the study of complex networks.
Á. Carmona, A. Encinas, M. J. Jiménez et al.· The Electronic Journal of Li...· 0 citations
The physics of spreading in static networks is well understood through mappings to percolation. We show that spreading dynamics on temporal networks can analogously be mapped to reachability in temporal event graphs. This provides a theoretical and computational framework for a class of processes, such as variants of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model. Without explicit simulations, through the component analysis of event graphs, we obtain epidemic prevalence and derive epidemic thresholds for temporal networks with arbitrary degree and inter-event time distributions, with significant computational advantages as compared to explicit simulations.
Omar Henderson, Mikko Kivelä, M'arton Karsai· 0 citations
We propose a unified nonparametric framework for modeling time-evolving networks using decorated graphons (also known as probability-graphons): symmetric functions that assign to each node pair a probability distribution over binary edge time series. This generalizes the static decorated-graphon construction to dynamic graphs while preserving node exchangeability and allowing temporal dynamics such as memory and periodicity. Models in which edges evolve independently given the latent variables, such as autoregressive and Markov edge processes, arise as special cases. We develop a two-stage estimation procedure that separates temporal modeling from network structure. Because the network stage requires only mild regularity conditions on the edge-process estimator, a broad class of temporal edge models can be used in the first stage. We establish nonparametric convergence rates in both block-model and H\"older-smooth regimes, and make explicit how the rate depends on the number of observed time steps and on the quality of the edge-level estimation. We illustrate the method on simulated data and a hospital contact network, recovering latent community structure and time-varying interaction patterns. The framework gives a nonparametric baseline for dynamic network analysis with explicit convergence guarantees.