The Mechanics of a Swarm: A Reproducible External Reconstruction of an Unintended Agent-Coordination Episode on a Third-Party Wiki
Abstract
Between 24 May and 2 July 2026, autonomous language-model agents running inside a timed research-question evaluation wrote to a third party's public, world-writable wiki. OpenAI acknowledged the incident; independent researchers reconstructed it and published the wiki's archived revision history. We analyse that history (14,591 revisions, 3,103 names, 4,579 pages) as a behavioural record, attributing text to the revision that added it. Under an explicit identity model we reconstruct 907 cohorts and estimate about 876 episodes (95% interval 784-1008). Coordination formats converged within a day, and heterogeneous schedules over one question chain created large opportunities for information asymmetry: the first report of an item preceded a later cohort's own arrival by a median of 3.4 h. Across the 510 cohorts with an observable progress trace we find no robust positive association between measured coordination and documented progress. This version adds a source the export lacks: the wiki operator's own request log, 5,157,202 records over four months. It holds roughly 2.66M content requests and 1.58M searches, and 7,254 acting names against the export's 3,103; 2,578 names neither save nor open an edit form. Content requests before writing are observed for 1,034 of 1,140 coordinating names, and the first coordination page is requested 17 s after its creation. These records establish requests, not delivery or causal use. Among newcomers without a marker on their first written page, prior requests to other marker-bearing pages occur for 40.2% of marker adopters and 31.7% of non-adopters. The association remains, but our first-pass reading of it as transmission is withdrawn: page choice, shared behaviour and action-dependent nameability prevent causal identification. We list the claims from our earlier analyses that re-examination overturned, including one from this version's own first pass