Techno-Economic Assessment of a Hybrid Offshore Wind–Tidal System for Green Hydrogen Production and Maritime Export in Morocco: A Model-Based Feasibility Study

Abstract

Morocco’s National Green Hydrogen Roadmap targets large-scale hydrogen exports, yet the offshore wind and tidal resources of the Atlantic Sahara coast remain underexplored, and single-resource electrolysis plants suffer from low, variable electrolyser utilisation. This study presents a reproducible, model-based techno-economic assessment of a 560 MW hybrid offshore wind–tidal hub at Dakhla that produces hydrogen by proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis and exports it as liquid hydrogen (LH2) to Jorf Lasfar. The assessment is entirely theoretical: it couples reanalysis-based resource characterisation, harmonic tidal modelling, hourly dispatch, and discounted levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) analysis, and does not include experimental or in situ measurements. The hybrid plant reaches a 45.5% capacity factor and produces 36,781 t of hydrogen per year at 60% electrolyser utilisation. The 2025 base-case production LCOH is 7.53 USD/kg (10.04 USD/kg delivered), falling to 4.45 USD/kg under a 2030 learning scenario that approaches the national 2–4 USD/kg target band. Because the wind and tidal resources are almost uncorrelated, hybridisation firms the supply and reduces electrolyser cycling rather than adding bulk energy; capacity factor and electrolyser-specific energy consumption are the dominant cost drivers. This work provides the first integrated wind–tidal hydrogen assessment for the Moroccan Atlantic coast and a transparent platform for future optimisation.