Land use change, driving factors, and multi-scenario projections of ecosystem service supply in the Yangtze River delta urban agglomeration

Abstract

Rapid urban expansion has intensified regional human-land conflicts and ecological risks. This study examines the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration the key urban cluster development areas in China, using multi-source spatial data and integrated modeling approaches, including the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and Patch-level Land Use Simulation (PLUS) models, to analyze land use changes from 2000 to 2020 and assess ecosystem service dynamics for 2010–2020, and project future land use patterns under three development scenarios for 2030 and 2060. The results suggest that: (1) conversion of cropland to construction land is primarily associated with land use changes, with over 3,000 km 2 transformed during 2000–2005, resulting in landscape fragmentation and ecosystem service degradation; (2) distinct driving factors are associated with different land types, cropland dynamics respond to both slope constraints and socio-economic factors, construction land expansion correlates strongly with population growth, while forest/grassland distribution follows natural determinants; and (3) scenario analysis projects that continuing current trends would expand construction land by 9,000 km 2 by 2060, associated with substantial carbon storage decline, whereas ecological priority scenarios may substantially mitigate these risks. This research provides valuable insights for balancing ecological conservation and urban development in rapidly urbanizing regions.