An evaluation framework for digital performance models in flight testing

Abstract

Digital performance models are increasingly vital in aerospace for mission simulation, safety monitoring, and predictive maintenance. Yet their flight test evaluation suffers from fragmented workflows and a lack of systematic frameworks, impeding the shift from “usable” to “trustworthy”. Grounded in Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VV&UQ), this paper presents a four-phase, 18-node evaluation framework. The phases—Preparation, Verification, Qualification, and Comprehensive Evaluation—define the structure of the full evaluation lifecycle. Key techniques including uncertainty quantification, bias tracing via residual analysis, Bayesian adaptive calibration, and multi-criteria trustworthiness fusion are integrated into a closed-loop workflow. A walk-through on a hypothetical aerospace digital performance model demonstrates the framework’s feasibility, offering a methodology that balances theoretical depth with engineering practicality for flight test model evaluation.