Techno-Economic Trade-offs and Strategic Decision-Making in Maritime Decarbonisation: Evaluating Alternative Fuel Pathways under Uncertainty

Abstract

Maritime transport is undergoing a complex transition toward lower greenhouse gas emissions under increasing regulatory and market pressure. This study develops an integrated techno-economic perspective on maritime decarbonisation by examining the interaction between regulatory frameworks, alternative fuel pathways, and strategic decision-making in shipping. The analysis combines insights from institutional theory and real options theory to explain how shipowners respond to uncertainty related to technology, fuel availability, infrastructure development, and future environmental regulation.The paper evaluates major alternative marine fuels, including liquefied natural gas, biofuels, hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, in terms of emissions reduction potential, technological maturity, infrastructure readiness, and economic implications. Particular emphasis is placed on the evolving regulatory environment shaped by the International Maritime Organization and European Union policies such as the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime.The Greek shipping industry is used as an illustrative case for understanding strategic adaptation under regulatory and technological uncertainty. The findings indicate that no single fuel pathway currently satisfies all operational and economic requirements, leading shipowners to adopt flexible and portfolio-based investment strategies. The study contributes to a broader understanding of strategic adaptation within the maritime energy transition. This study contributes by proposing an integrated decision-making framework that combines Institutional Theory and Real Options Theory for strategic fuel selection under regulatory uncertainty.