Climate change reshapes the global distribution of wild barley relatives: integrating life-history traits and ecological niche modeling

Distribution Shifts of Vaccinium Berry Wild Relatives in China Under Climate and Land‐Use Changes

ABSTRACT Predicting species distributions under future environmental change is essential for understanding biodiversity responses and informing conservation planning. Vaccinium, a genus that includes important germplasm resources for many commercial berry crops, comprises diverse berry wild relatives (BWRs) in China, yet research on their responses to environmental changes remains limited. Here, we used occurrences of eight Vaccinium BWRs in China and ensemble species distribution models to predict their distributions in the 2070s under climate and land‐use changes (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) together with two dispersal scenarios (20 km/decade and full dispersal). We found stronger effects from climate‐related variables than land‐use variables on the distributions of the eight BWRs. The current potential distribution areas were largely consistent with known distributions, with generally high or moderate suitability. Most species would have their range size contracted, while two species were projected to have considerable range size increased. There was a trend of range shifts toward higher latitudes for most species. Based on projected persistent suitable areas, three northeastern distributed species would have their habitat limited in the Greater Khingan Mountains area, while five southern distributed species would harbor relative stability in their own specific areas. These findings enhance our understanding of how climate and land‐use changes may reshape the distributions of Vaccinium BWRs in China and provide valuable insights for their long‐term conservation and management.

Conservation of forest genetic resources in eastern India amidst climate change and abiotic stress

Eastern India’s tropical deciduous forest ecosystems, dominated by Shorea robusta C.F.Gaertn., are increasingly threatened by abiotic stressors and climate change, posing significant risks to species survival, regeneration dynamics, and forest genetic resources. This study assessed the current status and future distributional dynamics of S. robusta and its five major associates, Terminalia alata B.Heyne ex Roth, Pterocarpus marsupium Roxb., Lagerstroemia parviflora Roxb., Diospyros melanoxylon Blume, and Madhuca longifolia (J.Koenig ex L.) J.F.Macbr., under changing climatic conditions in eastern India. Field surveys were conducted across 870 quadrats distributed throughout the tropical deciduous forests of Jharkhand, Bihar, and West Bengal during 2020–2023 to collect species occurrence, population structure, and regeneration data. Species distributions under current and future climate scenarios were modelled using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) software under different CMIP6 climate models (INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MIROC6) proxied through four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Under current climatic conditions, S. robusta occupied highest coverage (~ 12.13%) across the study area as suitable habitat, proving its dominance. Future projections indicated a northward shift and contraction of suitable habitat for S. robusta, P. marsupium, and L. parviflora, with S. robusta projected to lose approximately 14–67% of its suitable habitat by 2050. Under a business-as-usual scenario, all studied species were predicted to experience habitat decline, with the greatest reduction (~ 84%) observed for L. parviflora. Population assessments revealed good regeneration status for S. robusta, M. longifolia, P. marsupium, T. alata, and D. melanoxylon, whereas L. parviflora exhibited comparatively poorer regeneration. Notably, P. marsupium and M. longifolia exhibit resilience to climate stress, supported by favorable regeneration status. These findings provide a scientific basis for location- and species-specific conservation and restoration strategies to enhance the long-term resilience of eastern India’s tropical deciduous forest ecosystems under climate change. Current suitable habitats for S. robusta and its major associates are concentrated in the southern and western parts of eastern India, with promising regeneration status for most species except L. parviflora. Future climate projections indicate a potential northward shift and contraction in the suitable habitat of S. robusta, reflecting broader ecological transitions in the region. Among associated species, M. longifolia and P. marsupium show the highest resilience to climate change. Current suitable habitats for S. robusta and its major associates are concentrated in the southern and western parts of eastern India, with promising regeneration status for most species except L. parviflora. Future climate projections indicate a potential northward shift and contraction in the suitable habitat of S. robusta, reflecting broader ecological transitions in the region. Among associated species, M. longifolia and P. marsupium show the highest resilience to climate change.

Optimized MaxEnt Models Predict Species-Specific Habitat Suitability Shifts for Three Dryland Fabaceae Species in Xinjiang

Climate warming is altering plant range limits in drylands, where water limitation, soil salinity, and thermal extremes jointly constrain species niches. Yet it remains unclear whether dryland legumes with contrasting life forms respond differently to future climates, a problem that remains poorly resolved. We used ENMeval-optimized MaxEnt models to estimate the current and future potential distributions of three ecologically important legumes in arid Xinjiang: Alhagi camelorum, a perennial semi-shrub; Glycyrrhiza inflata, a perennial herb; and Trigonella arcuata, an annual herb. Models were evaluated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 and showed high discriminatory performance with test AUC values of 0.910–0.947. Under the current climate, G. inflata formed a concentrated core in the Tarim Basin oases, T. arcuata showed a fragmented northern-biased distribution, and A. camelorum was widely dispersed across both northern and southern Xinjiang. The strongest predictors differed among species: minimum temperature of the coldest month for G. inflata (45.9% contribution), precipitation seasonality for T. arcuata 76.8%, and NDVI for A. camelorum 34.0%. Bootstrap-based niche analyses further quantified these differences: A. camelorum and G. inflata had similar niche breadths, Levins’ B2 = 0.329 and 0.315, respectively, whereas T. arcuata had the narrowest niche breadth, B2 = 0.225; 95% CI: 0.162–0.241. Pairwise niche overlap was generally low, particularly between G. inflata and T. arcuata (Schoener’s D = 0.019; Hellinger’s I = 0.038). Projections based on BCC-CSM2-MR indicated species-specific and scenario-dependent suitability shifts across both future periods. G. inflata showed the largest projected net gains across periods and scenarios; A. camelorum showed moderate but consistently positive gains, whereas T. arcuata showed weaker and more uncertain responses, including significant net losses under SSP1-2.6. These asymmetric trajectories suggest species-specific responses among the three legumes and provide hypotheses for how life-form-related ecological strategies may shape dryland habitat shifts. Given this limited replication, these trajectories should be treated as species-specific hypotheses rather than evidence for life-form effects. Future SDM assessments should broaden taxonomic sampling and incorporate key functional traits to improve forecasts of dryland community reassembly and conservation planning.

Climate Change May Drive the Distribution and Richness Patterns of Global Pinus L.

Climate change has significantly affected the geographical distribution and richness patterns of plant species worldwide. Pinus is a major component of many temperate and montane forests in the Northern Hemisphere and is important for carbon storage, climatic buffering and timber production. Here, we utilized the MaxEnt model and integrated global occurrence records of 113 Pinus species, predicting climatic envelopes and diversity distribution patterns under three emission scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s, while also identifying diversity hotspots, high-decline regions, and conservation gaps. As global overheating and linked climatic variations intensify, climatically suitable areas for Pinus are projected to shift poleward. Using projected climatic envelope contraction as a screening criterion, 7.96%–44.25% of species qualified as climate-vulnerable across scenarios. Additionally, Pinus demonstrates high species richness in North America, the Mediterranean region, and mid-latitude mountainous regions of East Asia. Our predictions reveal that species richness distribution will be notably influenced by climate change, with impacts gradually intensifying as climate change progresses. Fortunately, the current coverage rate of protected areas in diversity hotspots exceeds 92.31%, and the conservation gaps primarily occur in Mexico. It is anticipated that over 86.46% of hotspot areas will remain protected in the future. However, new conservation gaps may arise in eastern North America and southeastern Europe; these regions should be prioritized in future conservation planning. Our research enhances current understanding of how species might respond to the challenges of climate change while also providing practical guidance for priority conservation planning targeting both biodiversity hotspots and high-decline regions.

Impact of current and future climate change on the potential habitat suitability of Quercus coccifera L. in the Southern Mediterranean: Comparative study

The projected expansion of suitable habitats for Fagus species in China under future climate scenarios: an analysis leveraging the MaxEnt model

Fagus species are renowned for their superior timber and ecological value in paleoecological research. However, climate change has been a contributing factor to the decline of Fagus species. Moreover, because Fagus species are primarily confined to temperate mountainous regions–where sampling and long-term monitoring are challenging–conservation research on these trees remains very limited. To address this gap, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate potential habitat distributions and centroid migration trends of Fagus species under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) for the 2050s, 2070s and 2090s. Additionally, the study assessed niche differentiation and utilised the GeoDetector to evaluate environmental drivers of distribution changes. The results showed that the most suitable habitats for Fagus species were concentrated in the high-elevation regions of southern China. The areas of highly and moderately suitable habitats were 4.00 × 105 km2 and 6.18 × 105 km2, respectively. Minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6) and precipitation of the driest month (BIO14) were identified as the main environmental factors influencing species distribution and habitat differentiation. Future projections indicated an expansion of suitable habitats. Under the SSP588 scenario, a pronounced expansion trend was observed, with increases of 3.87 × 105 km2 (2050s), 5.59 × 105 km2 (2070s) and 5.82 × 105 km2 (2090s). Notably, habitat centroids exhibited a northwestward migration trajectory. Additionally, the results showed that by the 2090s, significant niche differentiation was projected to occur exclusively under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. These findings clarify climatic determinants of Fagus species, offering actionable insights for sustainable use.