Combined model for estimating the reliability and fault-free performance of ship navigational equipment under operational risks

Abstract

The article presents a combined model for assessing the probability of trouble-free operation of shipboard radionavigation equipment and systems, taking into account both gradual and sudden failures. Based on an analysis of theoretical approaches to modeling the reliability of technical systems, the expediency of using a combination of exponential and normal distributions is substantiated. The model takes into account both equipment aging and operational risks, which allows for an increase in the reliability of the assessment and the efficiency of risk management. Numerical calculations are performed using statistical data on the mean time between failures (MTBF) of navigation devices. A comparative analysis of the modeling results confirms the advantages of the proposed approach over traditional methods, enabling it to enhance the reliability and safety of maritime navigation.