No constituency for universal basic income? Evidence from seven Latin American countries

Abstract

Despite the expansion of non-contributory cash transfer programmes in Latin America – especially during the COVID-19 pandemic – public support for a universal basic income (UBI) remains remarkably low. Using original survey data from seven countries, we find that fewer than 10 per cent of respondents support both the universality and unconditionality that define UBI. Notably, support for UBI is not significantly shaped by socio-economic status or left-right orientation, and current recipients of targeted transfers are no more likely than others to favour UBI. In contrast, support for targeted programmes – particularly for the extreme poor – is robust and explained by income, education and ideology, consistent with classic self-interest models. These findings challenge the view that targeted programmes may serve as stepping stones toward universalist policies. Rather, they suggest that such programmes may consolidate a political logic of deservingness that constrains broader redistributive ambitions.