Mission-Oriented Contribution Assessment of Power Systems for Equipment Design Under Uncertainty

Abstract

Power-system alternatives involve coupled trade-offs among fuel economy, thrust, response, and mass, requiring evaluation from a mission-level perspective rather than through isolated technical indicators. However, existing methods provide limited traceability from subsystem parameters to mission effectiveness under uncertain scenarios. This paper proposes a mission-oriented contribution assessment framework integrating capability mapping, functional mission-loop evaluation, Markov phase modeling, and uncertainty analysis. power-system parameters are transformed into platform capability indices and mapped to reconnaissance, command, and execution functions. These capabilities are combined with mission geometry to construct node and link features, whose phase effectiveness is aggregated according to the stationary distribution of a scenario-defined Markov process. Prior-predictive sampling and sensitivity analysis are further used to characterize ranking uncertainty and identify influential modeling assumptions. The case study demonstrates that the framework can provide transparent, reproducible, and assumption-aware support for early-stage power-system design screening.