This work proposes bipartite graphical causal models (BGCMs), in which the structure of a system of equations is encoded by a bipartite graph with variable and equation nodes, and forms a Markov property in terms of a new graphical separation criterion (B-separation) that exploits the functional determinism inherent in the equations.
Abstract
Causal Bayesian networks (CBNs) and structural causal models (SCMs) are the dominant frameworks for graphical causal reasoning, but they cannot adequately represent all real-world causal systems. In particular, systems at equilibrium---where feedback mechanisms create cyclic causal dependencies---can exhibit causal semantics that are fundamentally incompatible with these frameworks: different interventions that enforce the same variable value may have different effects, rendering the standard ``perfect intervention''do($X = x$) ambiguous. We propose bipartite graphical causal models (BGCMs), in which the structure of a system of equations is encoded by a bipartite graph with variable and equation nodes. In this framework, a hard intervention do($f_j : X_v = \xi_v$) specifies which equation is replaced, which variable is targeted, and at what value---resolving the ambiguity of the standard notion. We demonstrate, through a detailed case study of a physical system, that this representation naturally corresponds to distinct real-world interventions. We formulate a Markov property in terms of a new graphical separation criterion (B-separation) that exploits the functional determinism inherent in the equations, and we extend it to settings with non-random inputs. We show how this gives rise to a do-calculus for reasoning about domain invariances. BGCMs strictly generalize CBNs and SCMs while retaining the ability to perform graphical causal reasoning.
Pearl famously argues that causal knowledge enables the prediction of intervention effects. By contrast, purely descriptive knowledge supports only conclusions drawn from observations. His theory of causality, however, is developed exclusively within Bayesian networks and causal models. Consequently, it is largely restricted to acyclic causal relationships, and transferring its ideas to other formalisms risks misinterpretation or inconsistency. This paper brings Pearl's approach to causality into probabilistic logic programming (PLP). To this end, such programs are aligned with philosophical foundations established in prior work that do not rely on temporal notions; that is, all relevant events are assumed to occur simultaneously. A formal causal semantics for these programs, together with a notion of intervention and an implementation, is proposed. It is shown that this semantics coincides with the P-log semantics for stratified ProbLog programs, while the two may differ in the non-stratified case and for other PLP formalisms.
Kilian Rueckschloss, Felix Weitkaemper· Electronic Proceedings in Th...· 0 citations
Pearl's structural causal model (SCM) framework, built on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and the do-calculus, is the dominant formal language for causal reasoning. Yet it carries two structural restrictions: every relationship must be pre-specified as a directed causal edge, and feedback cycles are forbidden. This paper examines two classes of phenomena that strain these restrictions. First, symmetric physical and economic constraints, the ideal gas law being the canonical case, carry no intrinsic causal direction. Direction emerges only under intervention, and which variable is solved for must be specified as part of the intervention. We formalize such constraints as causal zeros within an Extended Causal Model by adding an activation operator, subject to local solvability and graph-admissibility conditions. Second, for the class of finite-propagation state-space systems considered here, we treat apparent instantaneous cycles as artifacts of suppressed time and ground both causal zeros and feedback in Causal Differential Equations (CDEs). In these, the transient regime is a time-unrolled acyclic causal process, and causal zeros arise as the defining functions of attracting equilibrium manifolds; periodic and chaotic attractors define further regimes of the same dynamics, treated through attractor-relative intervention. We give the extended do-calculus, identifiability conditions, counterfactual semantics, and open problems.
This paper proposes a causal independence principle for value -- the value Causal Markov Condition (v-CMC) -- and develops the conceptual and mathematical foundations of a"causal value theory"linking causality and utility. After motivating a local formulation of the v-CMC, we introduce a probability-value duality that translates standard causal-inference results into the value setting. In particular, we formulate local, global, and decomposition versions of the v-CMC and prove their equivalence. We also define v-separation and show that it is sound and complete for conditional value independence. Furthermore, we derive a Bellman-type recursion as a special case of the v-CMC, thereby generalizing standard Bellman recursion from linear chains to causal DAGs. Finally, we show how the v-CMC supports modular transfer and updating of utility information across causal contexts and develop algorithms for causally structured utility elicitation and canonical influence-diagram construction.
Causal Discovery (CD) from observational data faces two fundamental challenges. First, purely statistical methods often lack the power to resolve structural ambiguities in low-sample regimes. Second, although LLM-assisted hybrid approaches improve structure recovery through semantic reasoning, the influence of that reasoning on individual edge decisions remains largely opaque. Consequently, existing hybrid methods fail to satisfy a fundamental requirement: explaining why a particular edge is included or excluded in the learned directed acyclic graph (DAG). This is critical in real-world applications, where no ground-truth DAG exists and every structural decision must be independently justified. We formalize this requirement as decision traceability, requiring every inferred edge to be supported by auditable statistical evidence, Markov Blanket consistency, or explicit domain reasoning. We propose GENESIS, an explainable hybrid CD framework that decomposes graph construction into interpretable decision points. GENESIS first identifies and scores three-node structural motifs, including chains, forks, and colliders, to establish transparent structural priors, then progressively refines the graph by integrating these priors with observational evidence, invoking domain knowledge only when statistical evidence is insufficient. By design, every edge decision is resolved through an auditable source of evidence. Experiments show that GENESIS achieves 100% decision traceability across all settings, establishing explainability as a first-class objective in causal discovery. Despite this additional requirement, GENESIS consistently outperforms purely statistical CD methods on the majority of benchmark datasets across all sample regimes in terms of Structural Hamming Distance (SHD), while achieving performance comparable to state-of-the-art LLM-assisted approaches.
A. Thorat, Ravi Kolla, Vishak K Bhat et al.· 0 citations
DAG-FM is proposed, a novel foundation model architecture that amortizes causal discovery and introduces Mixture-of-Leaf-Experts (MoLE) to handle diverse and unknown Functional Causal Model (FCM) assumptions in real-world scenarios.
Explaining why a specific outcome occurred, and which inputs deserve the blame or credit, is central to philosophical, scientific, and policy analysis. Existing tools split into two camps. The theory of actual causality (AC) gives principled verdicts, but only for toy-sized models, because computing them requires enumerating counterfactual scenarios. Scalable attribution methods like SHAP (or even causal SHAP) at least partially ignore the causal structure that generated the data, and can give answers that conflict with a careful causal analysis. We close this gap with Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI). PCI builds on actual causality and on Pearl's notions of probability of necessity and sufficiency, but recasts the question of explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model that is easily approximated via Monte Carlo. By specifying a distribution over"candidate explanations,"a distribution over counterfactual values, and a scoring function, PCI provides tractable, causally grounded, graded explanations, generalizing AC and Pearl's probability of causation as degenerate cases. We evaluate PCI in synthetic and real-world examples, spanning consistency checks with AC, scaling experiments, complex continuous-valued dynamical systems, and a real-world deployed causal machine learning model trained on millions of datapoints.
Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman et al.· 0 citations
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