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From Log-Odds to Shapley Values: An Explanatory Geometry for the Weighted Naive Bayes Classifier

Vincent Lemaire Fabrice Cl\'erot
Oct 2026
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Data Science

Abstract

This paper studies the construction of an explanatory space for a weighted naive Bayes classifier from the supervised representation induced by the model. We start from the classical supervised distance based on conditional log-likelihoods and introduce a discriminative reformulation based on log-odds, which is more directly related to the classification decision. We then show that this representation induces a distance that exactly coincides with the $\ell_1$ distance between vectors of analytical Shapley values, thereby providing a formal explanatory interpretation of the geometry induced by the model. Finally, we empirically compare several supervised distances derived from these representations using a $k$-nearest neighbors classifier. This work highlights a close link between supervised distance, local explanation, and predictive behavior, from a primarily methodological perspective.

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