It is shown that when resampling many reasoning chains, uncertainty dynamics converge to stable patterns, and noise is largely an artifact of sampling rather than an LLM's sensitivity to each individual token or reasoning step.
Abstract
LLM reasoning is stochastic, and so understanding a model requires grappling with the distribution of reasoning chains that it might produce for a given question, i.e., its uncertainty. Resampling-based analyses characterize this distribution, revealing which steps of a rollout determine how the model arrives at its answer. However, a major limitation of these approaches is that resampling text sequences at every token or sentence in a reasoning chain is very costly. Our work strives to make resampling analysis more computationally efficient, while also shedding light on an important scientific question: what is the right statistical model for explaining uncertainty dynamics in text generation? We show that when resampling many reasoning chains, uncertainty dynamics converge to stable patterns, and noise is largely an artifact of sampling rather than an LLM's sensitivity to each individual token or reasoning step. We develop a statistical model for smoothing noisy low-sample rollout data to better approximate high-sample data, allowing us to significantly cut sampling costs.
Chain-of-thought reasoning provides a structured computation between a model's input and final answer. Yet it is often evaluated through endpoint accuracy, which ignores the path taken to reach that answer. An emerging line of work addresses this limitation using entropy profiles, which track how uncertainty evolves over the reasoning process but do not reveal which competing hypotheses account for that uncertainty. We introduce answer-distribution trajectories, a stochastic-dynamics-inspired representation that tracks the model's full predictive distribution over answers as reasoning unfolds. As a strictly finer representation than endpoint and entropy summaries, answer-distribution trajectories enable us to characterize a trace through a dynamical reasoning profile spanning exploration, revision, motion, and commitment, and to distinguish different dynamical mechanisms of reasoning success and failure. Across sixteen open-weight language models and four reasoning benchmarks, we show that traces with the same endpoint and similar entropy profiles can exhibit substantially different reasoning dynamics. We further find substantial variation in these dynamics both within and across models and tasks, with different objectives favoring different dynamical profiles. Additionally, we show that training and inference choices systematically reshape these profiles. Our results suggest that answer-distribution trajectories provide a rich framework for analysing and evaluating the dynamics of LLM reasoning.
Mar Gonz\`alez I Catal\`a, Haitz S\'aez de Oc\'ariz Borde, Davide Murari et al.· 0 citations
Power Sampling sharpens a language model's distribution over complete generation trajectories, offering a verifier-free way to improve reasoning at inference time. It also has the potential to serve as a general-purpose front end for a broad range of downstream sampling methods. However, we uncover a striking paradox: Power Sampling can drive more probability mass toward correct trajectories while degrading the downstream inference it is intended to enhance. Using self-consistency as a representative case, we observe accuracy drops of up to 18.5 percentage points across models and reasoning benchmarks. We trace this paradox to two mismatches. Dose mismatch arises because a fixed exponent induces drastically different amounts of distributional change across problems. Coverage mismatch arises because global sharpening concentrates mass on a narrow set of dominant paths: high pass@k, often interpreted as evidence of preserved diversity, can therefore coexist with the loss of broad reasoning-path support required for downstream aggregation, search, and selection. Guided by this diagnosis, we replace uniform trajectory exponentiation with a deformation-controlled, support-preserving Power target that calibrates sharpening across problems while limiting the suppression of moderate-probability paths. In a same-budget instantiation with weighted self-consistency, the repaired sampler reverses the losses caused by global Power and outperforms standard multi-sample inference across reasoning benchmarks.
The nature of test-time exploration in RLVR-trained LLMs is investigated by employing controlled maze-solving experiments and extracting a tree structure from mathematical reasoning traces (BODHI-Trees) based on semantic equivalence to delineate between entropy arising from stylistic variations and genuine inferential branching.
Soumadeep Saha, Krish Sharma, Akshay Chaturvedi et al.· 1 citation
It is suggested that models possess relevant subpopulation knowledge but do not reliably propagate it into aggregate estimates, and this gap establishes statistical self-consistency as an unsaturated, reference-free criterion for evaluating LLMs.
Patrik Wolf, Thomas Kleine Buening, Andreas Krause et al.· arXiv.org· 0 citations
Inference-time search with large language models (LLMs) often concentrates on a small set of structurally or semantically similar trajectories, leaving alternatives underexplored---a failure mode we call \textit{reasoning basin collapse}. We introduce BASIN, a training-free, structure-aware selection method that groups reasoning states into basins and penalizes repeated visits to the same strategy, thereby reallocating search across genuinely distinct reasoning paths under a fixed compute budget. Under matched inference budgets, BASIN improves over Tree of Thoughts (ToT) by up to $+22$pp on Game of 24 and $+6.7$pp on MuSR. A quality-aware variant, QA-BASIN, further improves robustness by preserving high-quality basins when unconditional diversification over-explores. To explain when basin-aware selection helps, we introduce the redundancy gap $\Delta$, which measures how differently search concentrates for correct versus incorrect predictions: standard ToT often operates near $\Delta \approx 0$, while BASIN consistently shifts $\Delta$ positive. More broadly, BASIN suggests structure-aware selection as a simple and general approach to improving inference-time reasoning. Code can be found at https://github.com/GitHubLuCheng/basin.
This work proposes Chained Recursive Language Models (Chained RLM), an inference-time architecture, in which the same underlying model is called repeatedly as a sequence of fresh reasoning roots, and studies when fresh-context artifact continuation gives a measurable gain in accuracy over direct LLM answering even with recursive tool-calling.
Purbesh Mitra, S. Ulukus· 0 citations
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