User-specified Kelvin-hour budgets within model predictive control for energy-efficient buildings: Simulation and field demonstration

Abstract

For energy-efficient building control, model predictive control (MPC) has been widely proposed to reduce energy use while maintaining prescribed indoor temperature bounds. In practice, MPC implementations may still produce temperature-bound violations because of model mismatch, weather-forecast errors, and softened constraints introduced to preserve feasibility. Existing soft- constrained MPC usually handles this trade-off through slack-weight tuning, so users cannot prescribe a violation-severity budget before operation. This paper develops a Kelvin-hour (Kh)-budget MPC that allows users to specify a running-average budget for temperature-bound violation severity. During operation, the controller uses the realized Kh budget surplus or overspend to update the temperature bounds, providing step-by-step budget feedback. We evaluate the method in two high-fidelity BOPTEST simulation cases and in an occupied residential deployment. In the first one-zone case, prescribed budgets produce clear running-average Kh violation responses across predictors and disturbance settings. At a prescribed budget of 0.005 Kh/step, the controller reduces energy use by 31.9% and Kh violation by 36.2% relative to the built-in default controller. In the second coupled two-zone case, separate zone budgets produce zone-level responses, with 18.9%-20.5% energy reduction and 9.4%-64.3% zone-level Kh violation reduction. In the occupied residential deployment, the running-average Kh violations remain close to or below their prescribed budgets under real sensing, actuation, weather, and occupancy conditions.