Analisis Pengaruh BI Rate dan Inflasi terhadap Kurs Rupiah di Indonesia Tahun 2005–2025
Abstract
Exchange rate stability is a crucial macroeconomic indicator for strengthening Indonesia’s economic resilience, as exchange rate fluctuations directly affect import costs, domestic price stability, export competitiveness, purchasing power, and the management of foreign-denominated debt. This study aims to examine the effects of the BI Rate and inflation on the Rupiah exchange rate against the United States Dollar (IDR/USD) during the 2005-2025 period. A quantitative approach employing descriptive and verificative methods was adopted. The study utilized 21 annual secondary time-series observations obtained from Bank Indonesia and BPS. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression with SPSS version 25. Prior to hypothesis testing, the regression model was evaluated through classical assumption tests, including normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation tests, to ensure the reliability of the estimated model. The findings demonstrate that the BI Rate and inflation jointly have a statistically significant effect on the Rupiah exchange rate (F = 68.794; p < 0.001). The coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.884 indicates that 88.4% of the variation in the Rupiah exchange rate can be explained by the BI Rate and inflation, while the remaining 11.6% is attributable to other factors outside the model. Partial testing further reveals that the BI Rate has a significant negative effect on the Rupiah exchange rate (t = −7.476; p < 0.001), while inflation also exhibits a significant negative effect (t = −9.031; p < 0.001). These findings support the Interest Rate Parity and Purchasing Power Parity theories, emphasizing the roles of interest rate differentials and price stability in exchange rate dynamics. Effective interest rate management and inflation control are therefore essential for maintaining Rupiah stability and strengthening macroeconomic resilience. The BI Rate and inflation should remain key considerations in formulating monetary policies aimed at ensuring sustainable exchange rate stability.