Divergent Trends of Surface Solar Radiation Across China (1994–2022): Integrating Ground Observations with Satellite Products for Regional Attribution

Abstract

Surface solar radiation (SSR) is a fundamental component of the Earth’s energy budget, driving climate dynamics, ecosystem stability, and solar energy potential. By integrating high-quality in situ observations from 87 ground stations with multi-source satellite products (CERES) and reanalysis data, this study systematically quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of SSR across China from 1994 to 2022. Nationally, SSR exhibits a significant brightening trend of 72 MJ m−2 per decade, despite pronounced regional and seasonal divergence. Annual SSR increases significantly in North, Central, Southwest, and South China—with North China experiencing the fastest growth (160 MJ m−2 per decade). Strikingly, the Tibetan Plateau exhibits a persistent and significant “dimming” trend (−86 MJ m−2 per decade). Furthermore, spatial analysis reveals that summer SSR trends show a unique meridional “+ − +” dipole structure that closely resembles the dominant mode of summer precipitation over eastern China. Quantitative attribution analysis indicates that declining aerosol optical depth (AOD) is the primary driver of brightening across most of China, whereas the dimming on the Tibetan Plateau is specifically triggered by increased atmospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and precipitation. These findings underscore that in sensitive high-altitude regions, regional climate dynamics and hydrological feedback can override the radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosol reductions, highlighting the necessity for localized solar resource assessments.