Safe Meta-Policy Design with Risk Control

Abstract

Models can be retrained as new data arrive, but deploying every new version risks replacing a good policy with a worse one. We study how to plan policy updates (i.e., meta-policy) before future candidates are trained, balancing the benefits of improvement against the risk of performance regression. Our offline meta-policy maximizes expected cumulative value subject to a budget on the expected number of updates that perform worse than the policies they replace. We estimate the value and risk of possible switches from historical learning trajectories, represent an update schedule as a path in a directed acyclic graph, and select a schedule using dynamic programming. A leading-order analysis identifies the signal-to-noise ratio of policy improvement as a key driver of update frequency, waiting times, and risk allocation: clearer improvements support earlier, more frequent updates, while noisier improvements call for longer waits or greater risk expenditure. Their asymptotic rates also reveal a diminishing marginal cost of achieving greater safety over time. Experiments on synthetic and clinical trial data illustrate the performance--risk tradeoff and compare our method with alternative baselines.