Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Valuable Tree Species in the Sudanian Domain of Senegal

Abstract

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity, with profound implications for the distribution and persistence of tree species that provide essential ecological, economic, and social benefits. This study assessed whether forests in the Sudanian zone of Senegal will continue to provide suitable environmental conditions for fifteen high-value tree species under future climate change scenarios. Species distribution models were developed using presence–absence data collected from 2398 forest inventory plots and five selected bioclimatic variables. Generalized linear mixed models with a binomial distribution were fitted using historical climate data and projected under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100. The projections indicate a consistent increase in mean annual temperature across all climate scenarios, whereas changes in precipitation vary depending on the scenario. Species responses differed markedly, reflecting contrasting climatic tolerances. Nine species (Acacia macrostachya, Bombax costatum, Cordyla pinnata, Combretum micranthum, Detarium microcarpum, Prosopis africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus, Sterculia setigera, and Terminalia avicennioides) are projected to undergo substantial reductions in their suitable distribution areas under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0, with severe contractions or local disappearance under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5). In contrast, three species are predicted to maintain relatively stable distributions or expand their suitable ranges under future climatic conditions. Spatial projections further suggest an overall west–southwest shift in species distributions. Overall, our findings demonstrate that most high-value tree species in the Sudanian zone are highly vulnerable to future climate change and may face an increased risk of local extinction. These results highlight the urgent need to integrate climate change into forest management planning by prioritizing adaptive conservation strategies, strengthening monitoring programs, reducing harvesting pressure on vulnerable species, and promoting their natural regeneration to enhance the long-term resilience of Sudanian forests.