Trading more, transforming less? Digital capability, sectoral bottlenecks and structural transformation in ECOWAS

Abstract

This study investigates why increased trade has not generated structural change in ECOWAS countries and identifies the capability bottlenecks that should be addressed first. The analysis uses panel data for fifteen ECOWAS countries from 2017 to 2024 (T = 8, N = 120). A capability alignment framework distinguishes institutional governance, digital connectivity, and human capital. Two-way fixed-effects models with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors are complemented by a Digital-Agricultural Readiness Trap (DART) index and regime-specific cluster analysis. Institutional governance is more strongly associated with manufacturing upgrading than connectivity or human capital. Connectivity is the digital component most strongly associated with services expansion. In agriculture, the association between digital connectivity and productivity is conditional on complementary physical infrastructure. Countries cluster into three capability regimes with distinct constraints. Industrial capacity remains the strongest correlate of manufacturing performance, while human capital supports manufacturing and services, reinforcing the need for complementary rather than uniform reforms and targeted regional policy coordination. Trade liberalisation alone is unlikely to deliver structural transformation. ECOWAS and AfCFTA implementation should sequence capability building by strengthening governance and standards for manufacturing, connectivity for services, and bundled physical and digital infrastructure for agriculture. The DART framework provides a basis for country-specific intervention sequencing decisions.