This work instantiate this framework with p, a hybrid estimator that combines verbal confidence with spectral answer diversity computed from the negative von Neumann entropy of sampled answer embeddings, and achieves higher average AUROC than verbal confidence and sampling-based uncertainty while using half as many samples as Vn10 sampling.
Abstract
Black-box large language models need confidence scores that can separate likely-correct from likely-incorrect outputs, enabling systems to prioritize human review, route uncertain cases to stronger models, or choose abstention thresholds on development data. Yet existing confidence estimators face a cost-quality trade-off: verbal confidence is cheap but is often overconfident, while sampling-based uncertainty is more informative but scales linearly with the number of samples per query. We propose \textsc{POOL} (\emph{Propagated Uncertainty Over Lookalikes}),a cost-efficient framework that addresses this trade-off taking inspiration from group-testing.\textsc{POOL} clusters query stems with overlaps, evaluates a base estimator on representative medoids, softly propagates confidence scores to nearby queries, and selectively evaluates high-disagreement cases. We instantiate this framework with \textsc{Hy@}$p$, a hybrid estimator that combines verbal confidence with spectral answer diversity computed from the negative von Neumann entropy of sampled answer embeddings.Across six domains from three datasets and five black-box LLMs, \textsc{Hy@}5 achieves higher average AUROC than verbal confidence and \textsc{Vn@}10 sampling while using half as many samples as \textsc{Vn@}10. \textsc{POOL}-\textsc{Hy@}5 retains 93.5--97.9\% of its AUROC while saving 19.3--39.3\% of generations. On paraphrase-dense workloads, generation savings rise to 73-76\%, showing that semantic redundancy can be leveraged to lower confidence-estimation costs.
DirEAG is proposed, a Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation method that converts each elicited answer-confidence observation into calibrated soft evidence over generated candidate answers and an additional null state, allowing the model to represent cases where none of the candidates is correct.
ConfidenceBench, a calibration benchmark that evaluates verbalized confidence estimates in 15 frontier LLMs using the Brier score, a proper scoring rule that incentivises truthful probability reporting shows that verbalized confidence calibration is a distinct and practically important axis of LLM reliability, complementary to standard accuracy-based evaluation.
M. ffrench-Constant, Daniel Yang, Xinmeng Huang et al.· arXiv.org· 1 citation· ⚡1
Inference-time search with large language models (LLMs) often concentrates on a small set of structurally or semantically similar trajectories, leaving alternatives underexplored---a failure mode we call \textit{reasoning basin collapse}. We introduce BASIN, a training-free, structure-aware selection method that groups reasoning states into basins and penalizes repeated visits to the same strategy, thereby reallocating search across genuinely distinct reasoning paths under a fixed compute budget. Under matched inference budgets, BASIN improves over Tree of Thoughts (ToT) by up to $+22$pp on Game of 24 and $+6.7$pp on MuSR. A quality-aware variant, QA-BASIN, further improves robustness by preserving high-quality basins when unconditional diversification over-explores. To explain when basin-aware selection helps, we introduce the redundancy gap $\Delta$, which measures how differently search concentrates for correct versus incorrect predictions: standard ToT often operates near $\Delta \approx 0$, while BASIN consistently shifts $\Delta$ positive. More broadly, BASIN suggests structure-aware selection as a simple and general approach to improving inference-time reasoning. Code can be found at https://github.com/GitHubLuCheng/basin.
Confidence estimation for large language models (LLMs) aims to estimate the probability that a generated answer is correct, while calibration aligns these estimates with empirical accuracy. Prior work has shown that token probabilities are often overconfident, we investigate whether these readily available signals can nevertheless provide well-calibrated confidence estimation for mathematical question answering. We compare single-pass estimators, which reuse token probabilities from the original generation, with multi-pass estimators, which obtain additional confidence signals through verification or stochastic forward passes. While individual token probabilities can be highly saturated, we find that aggregating token probabilities over the full sequence captures small but consistent differences between correct and incorrect generations, yielding more informative confidence estimates. Multi-pass methods can yield calibrated confidence estimates. We study two such approaches: self-verification through re-prompting, including a lower-cost in-situ variant, and Monte Carlo Dropout, which derives confidence from variation across stochastic forward passes. We further evaluate two post-hoc calibration methods, Platt scaling and isotonic regression, both of which substantially reduce in-domain calibration error. However, their data efficiency varies with dataset difficulty, and the calibration mappings often transfer asymmetrically across datasets and models.
A. Ma, Lorne Schell, Vin Bhaskara et al.· 0 citations
Funnel of Thoughts (FoT) is introduced, an inference-time method that preserves the full 32-trajectory voted accuracy while halving its attention FLOPs, a 28.8% reduction in full-model inference cost.
Chanhee Park, Sun Han, Jeongho Yoon et al.· 0 citations
It is proposed that a model's uncertainty about a token is reflected not only in the breadth of its output distribution but also in whether a confident prediction is \emph{fragile} under perturbation of its attention pathways, a training-free estimator that masks attention heads and measures the BALD mutual information among the resulting subnetworks.
Minsoo Kim, Sungyoung Ji, Kisung Moon et al.· 0 citations
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