Enhancing the Resilience of Volcanic Islands Through the Analysis of Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies

Abstract

Critical infrastructures on volcanic islands are especially vulnerable to cascading failures because of their geographic isolation, limited redundancy and increasing climate hazards. However, most research on cascading failures has focused on continental or highly interconnected systems, while islands have received less attention. This study addresses this gap by developing a simulation platform based on the real spatial layout of infrastructure networks to model cascading failures across interdependent critical infrastructures. The model combines network science with economic and epidemiological concepts, includes interactions between infrastructure performance, workforce availability, and effects on population and crops. It was applied to six disruption scenarios across La Palma, Gran Canaria and El Hierro (Canary Islands). The results show that indirect cascading effects often exceed the initial damage, that electricity is the main driver of cross-sector disruptions, that there is a high dependency of water on energy, and that concentrated power generation increases system vulnerability. GENESIS climate projections also suggest that cascading impacts are likely to become more severe under future hazard conditions. By combining spatial network reconstruction with feedback between infrastructure and population, this study provides island authorities with a practical tool to identify resilience priorities and assess mitigation measures before future disruptive events take place.