Spatial, Temporal and Comparative Analysis of Land Surface Temperature in the Southern and Central Zones of Plateau State, Nigeria (1995–2025)

Abstract

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a critical indicator for assessing environmental change, climate variability, urbanization, and ecosystem health. This study presents a comparative spatio-temporal analysis of LST dynamics between the Central and Southern zones of Plateau State, Nigeria, over a 30-year period (1995–2025). The relationships between LST and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) were examined to determine the influence of land-cover change on surface-temperature variation. Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery for 1995 and 2010 and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS imagery for 2025, each with less than 10% scene cloud cover, were obtained from the USGS EarthExplorer archive and processed in ArcGIS 10.5. Standard remote-sensing procedures were applied to convert digital numbers to spectral radiance, at-sensor brightness temperature, and land surface temperature, while supervised classification was used to generate LULC maps and NDVI/NDBI were computed using established spectral-index equations. Comparative trend analysis was performed to evaluate temporal and spatial variation between the two zones, and a preliminary correlation analysis of zonal mean LST against NDVI and NDBI was carried out to test the expected direction of association. The results show substantial land-use change in both zones, characterized by continuous expansion of built-up land, increasing agricultural activity, and fragmentation of forest and vegetation cover. Mean LST rose markedly between 1995 and 2010 in both zones before declining slightly by 2025. The Central zone recorded mean LST of 26.89 °C, 34.33 °C, and 33.28 °C for 1995, 2010, and 2025 respectively, while the Southern zone recorded 17.62 °C, 35.51 °C, and 31.65 °C over the same period, indicating a markedly stronger thermal increase in the Southern zone between 1995 and 2010. Areas with high NDBI consistently coincided with elevated surface temperature, whereas areas with high NDVI recorded comparatively lower temperature, consistent with a positive LST–NDBI relationship and a negative LST–NDVI relationship. Descriptive correlation of the three-period zonal means yielded negative LST–NDVI and LST–NDBI associations in both zones (Central: r = −0.61 and r = −0.38; Southern: r = −0.98 and r = −0.98, respectively), although with only three temporal observations per zone these coefficients are indicative rather than statistically conclusive and are reported here as a preliminary check on the expected direction of the relationship, pending pixel-based correlation analysis. The study concludes that urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and vegetation loss are the principal drivers of rising land surface temperature in both the Central and Southern zones of Plateau State. The research provides baseline information for environmental monitoring, climate-change adaptation, urban planning, ecosystem conservation, and sustainable land-use management in the state. The integration of LST, NDVI, NDBI, and LULC analysis offers a replicable geospatial framework for identifying thermal hotspots and supporting evidence-based decision-making for sustainable regional development.