Dynamic Reconstruction and Assessment Model of Road Accident Risk Domain Incorporating Spatial Attenuation Effects and Multidimensional Coupling

Abstract

Traditional identification of accident-prone road sections relies on fixed-unit statistics, which has disadvantages that include missing spatial continuity of risk, boundary distortion, and information “averaging,” and struggles to support differentiated safety management. To address this issue, this study proposes a road accident risk field reconstruction model integrating dynamic spatial attenuation and probability-severity dual-dimensional coupling. First, based on the information diffusion principle and Gaussian kernel density estimation (KDE), a framework for converting discrete accident points into a continuous risk probability field is constructed, and a dynamic standard deviation function is proposed. This function enables the Gaussian kernel standard deviation to dynamically adapt to road design speed and cross-sectional type (with/without median divider), clarifying its physical correlation with drivers’ sight distance requirements. Second, by integrating casualties and direct economic losses, a continuous accident severity field is established through an accident equivalent loss function; the two fields are discretized using the quantile method, and combined with a risk matrix to generate comprehensive risk ratings (Levels I–V) via coupling. Verification using accident data from a Class II mountain highway in Guangxi shows the following: (1) the boundaries of the risk field generated by the model fit the road alignment well, with a probability field gradient smoothness of 0.0068, which can mitigate the boundary effect and step effect of the fixed-unit method; (2) compared with KDE with fixed bandwidth (0.35 km) and fixed-length segmentation method (0.5 km), the area under the curve (AUC) of the model’s probability field reaches 0.9641 (increased by 12.79% and 15.31%, respectively), the AUC of the severity field is 0.8669 (increased by 15.24% and 5.88%, respectively), and the Pearson correlation coefficient between the probability field and accident data is 0.4772 (increased by 11.01% and 3.77%, respectively), indicating that the identification accuracy and data fit have been improved; and (3) dual-dimensional coupling can distinguish risk patterns of high-frequency low-loss, low-frequency high-loss, and high-frequency high-loss, providing a quantitative basis for differentiated management. This model promotes the evolution of road risk assessment from discrete statistics to continuous field analysis, and can offer technical support for the optimal allocation of safety resources.