Demographic dynamics and natural population movement in the Republic of South Ossetia, 2014–2023.

Abstract

The relevance of the study stems from the need for an objective assessment of demographic processes in the Republic of South Ossetia (RSO). The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of population size dynamics, age-sex structure, and vital movement indicators over the period 2014–2023, employing regression analysis to identify statistically significant trends. It was found that the total population exhibits moderate fluctuations without a stable linear trend, while a persistent female predominance over males remains. A reliable downward trend in the crude birth rate was identified, alongside a statistically significant decline in the crude death rate. Spatial analysis revealed that the most pronounced negative changes in birth rates were recorded in the Dzau and Tskhinval districts, whereas trends in the Leningor district are unstable. The obtained results indicate a transformation of the demographic balance towards narrowed reproduction and necessitate the development of targeted measures for regional sociodemographic policy.