Russian stock market: corporate events, budget risks and the debt market

Portfolio of Financial Cash Management Instruments in the Public Sector: Structure and Development Trends

The article examines the portfolio of financial cash management instruments in the public sector of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the study is determined by the transition from passive holding of funds in the treasury single account to active management of temporarily available liquidity. The paper systematizes the key cash management instruments, including bank deposits, repo transactions, demand accounts, budget loans, foreign currency operations, and sovereign fund assets. The main trends in their transformation are identified: active balance management, modernization of existing instruments, stronger coordination with debt policy, and the development of digital solutions. The article concludes that it is necessary to improve liquidity forecasting, strengthen institutional coordination, and expand short-term liquidity attraction instruments.

Macro-financial changes in the Russian economy

Subject. The relationship between the dynamics of the money supply, the government debt market, the structure of banking assets and monetary policy cycles. Objectives. Identify structural shifts in the financial system, assess their impact on the formation of macrofinancial risks and opportunities, and provide scientifically sound forecasts and recommendations for regulators. Methods. The study is based on econometric modeling, comparative analysis of structural components, and a method of extrapolating identified trends to build scenario forecasts. Results. A parallel exponential growth of the monetary base and the volume of the federal loan bond market has been revealed, accompanied by a sharp reduction in the participation of non-residents, which signals the formation of a sovereign financing model. Multidirectional trends in the structure of banking assets have been identified: steady growth in lending to the corporate and retail sectors, explosive growth in interbank transactions and high cyclical volatility of other items. The cyclical nature of monetary policy is determined, with phases of sharp tightening and prolonged periods of negative and high positive real interest rates. A new configuration has been established in the financial system, characterized by an increased role of internal sources of financing and credit expansion, while generating fundamental risks: inflationary pressure from an increase in the money supply, an increasing debt burden on the budget and the private sector, and a decrease in investor diversification. Conclusions. The novelty of the study lies in substantiating the need for regulators to implement a comprehensive policy balancing between liquidity sterilization, macroprudential control over credit risks, the development of the domestic capital market and cyclical monetary policy easing.

Capital Share Risk

This article surveys evidence on the evolution of the capital share—the portion of output accruing to firm owners as after-tax profits—and its contribution to asset prices, arguing that capital share risk is a dominant driver of equity values. Using aggregate data on the US corporate sector, we show that the capital share has more than doubled since the late 1980s, driven primarily by a falling labor share. These changes have passed through nearly one-for-one into higher corporate payouts and help explain the long-run divergence between growth in the value of the stock market and real economic activity. Our review summarizes existing research on the measurement and structural consequences of movements in the capital share and outlines open questions about its empirical properties and endogenous links to macroeconomic variables. In sum, capital share risk is essential to understanding asset pricing dynamics in the modern economy.

Foreign Portfolio Investment Trends in India: A Study of Equity and Debt Segment

This study examines the trends and behavior of Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in India's equity and debt markets during the period from 2015 to 2025. Foreign portfolio investment serves as an important source of capital for emerging economies and plays a significant role in influencing market liquidity, investment activity, and overall financial market performance. The research focuses on understanding the factors that drive FPI movements and evaluating their implications for India's financial system. The study investigates the influence of both domestic and international macroeconomic conditions on foreign investment decisions. During the selected period, global financial markets experienced considerable uncertainty due to various economic and political developments. Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, changing investor sentiment, and shifts in monetary policies by major central banks had a substantial impact on the direction and volume of portfolio investments. These factors contributed to significant variations in FPI inflows and outflows across India's capital markets. The research analyzes the relationship between FPI trends and key economic indicators, including interest rates, exchange rate fluctuations, and market capitalization. The findings reveal that foreign investment flows are highly responsive to changes in economic conditions and market expectations. The study also identifies important patterns in investment behavior and highlights the sensitivity of portfolio capital to both global and domestic developments. Overall, the research provides valuable insights into the dynamics of FPI and its role in shaping the performance and stability of India's financial markets.

Russian Corporate Bond Market After 2022: New Challenges and Financial Innovations

This article examines financial innovations in the Russian corporate bond market as a response to structural changes in the economy following 2022. The tightening of monetary policy has led to prohibitively high interest rates for domestic companies, while the sanctions have closed access to external capital markets. Despite these constraints, Russian firms have successfully adapted to the new environment and even increased the volume of primary bond issuances. The study shows that financial innovations played a significant role in this adaptation process. Using a large dataset on corporate bond issuances after 2022, we identify the changes in the patterns of bond issuance. Three main types of financial innovations are highlighted: floating-rate bonds, new locally denominated currency bonds, and exotic instruments such as discount notes and convertible bonds. Our findings indicate that financial innovations after 2022 contributed to preserving and expanding corporate bond issuance while supporting the recovery of liquidity in the Russian bond market. In some cases, the new instruments reduced borrowing costs and partially substituted for market segments that became unavailable after 2022. At the same time, the recovery of the bond market cannot be attributed solely to financial innovations, but also reflects broader economic stabilization, market adaptation to the new institutional environment, and the development of domestic market infrastructure.

BIS Papers No 172 Global pension asset allocations and debt markets