THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY ON PUBLIC POLICY CONTINUITY: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF INDIA

Abstract

Political instability can influence the continuity, predictability and implementation of public policy, particularly in democracies characterised by coalition politics and frequent changes in government. This study examines the effects of political instability on public policy continuity in India during 1989–2022, when there was a shift from multiple coalition governments to relatively stable single-party majority governments. The study adopts a qualitative longitudinal research design based exclusively on secondary sources, including official government records, legislative documents, election data, and peer-reviewed academic studies, to examine changes in government and the continuity, modification, or disruption of significant economic and social policies, with particular attention to coalition politics. The findings suggest that, in general, political instability leads to increased policy uncertainty, slower decision-making in the legislature, and budgetary priorities and programme implementations that are more influenced by political considerations. But instability does not necessarily lead to policy discontinuity. The process of economic reform that began in 1991 persisted under successive governments, and the large-scale implementation of welfare and institutional policies showed some degree of durability with regard to changes in government (Mitra, 2011). UPA-II, on the other hand, was a time when political pressures led to policy paralysis in the absence of a change of government (Palit, 2012). The study finds that institutionalisation, administrative capacity, fiscal support, and inter-party consensus are more significant in ensuring the continuity of policies in the long term than government stability.